Trump misunderstood MIT climate research, university officials say
From an Article on CNBC, Reuters News Service, June 2, 2017
Massachusetts Institute of Technology officials said U.S. President Donald Trump badly misunderstood their research when he cited it on Thursday to justify withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Trump announced during a speech at the White House Rose Garden that he had decided to pull out of the landmark climate deal, in part because it would not reduce global temperatures fast enough to have a significant impact.
“Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100,” Trump said.
“Tiny, tiny amount.”
That claim was attributed to research conducted by MIT, according to White House documents seen by Reuters. The Cambridge, Massaschusetts-based research university published a study in April 2016 titled “How much of a difference will the Paris Agreement make?” showing that if countries abided by their pledges in the deal, global warming would slow by between 0.6 degree and 1.1 degrees Celsius by 2100.
“We certainly do not support the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris agreement,” said Erwan Monier, a lead researcher at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, and one of the study’s authors.
“If we don’t do anything, we might shoot over 5 degrees or more and that would be catastrophic,” said John Reilly, the co-director of the program, adding that MIT’s scientists had had no contact with the White House and were not offered a chance to explain their work.
The Paris accord, reached by nearly 200 countries in 2015, was meant to limit global warming to 2 degrees or less by 2100, mainly through country pledges to cut carbon dioxide and other emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
Under the pact, the United States – the world’s second biggest carbon emitter behind China – had committed to reduce its emissions by 26 percent to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025.
A senior administration official defended Trump’s use of the findings. “It’s not just MIT. I think there is a consensus, not only in the environmental community, but elsewhere that the Paris agreement in and of itself will have a negligible impact on climate,” the official told reporters at a briefing.
The dispute is the latest round of a years-long battle between scientists and politicians over how to interpret facts about the effects of burning fossil fuels on the global climate, and translate them into policy.
Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on the science of climate change and once called it a hoax perpetrated by China to weaken U.S. business.
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NOTE: “Trumped Up Hoax Theory Reins” — Donald Trump believes that climate change is a hoax, he has said so many times but he refuses to explain or justify this position. DGN
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Trump’s Paris Withdrawal Cedes Global Leadership to China
By Barbara Finamore, National Resources Defense Council, June 2, 2017
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/trumps-paris-withdrawal-cedes-global-leadership-china
It’s no hoax: by recklessly withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, Trump has just ceded the race for global leadership to China. Not only has he weakened American influence in the world, he has also damaged our relationship with some of our most important allies who no longer believe they can rely on the U.S. as a partner. Inexplicably – and opposed by the vast majority of American businesses – Trump has also handcuffed the U.S.’ ability to compete with China in the biggest market opportunity of the century: clean energy.
Meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement can fuel a $19 trillion surge in additional economic growth over the next 30 years. Global investment in renewable power capacity in 2016 was roughly double that in new fossil fuel generation. Low-carbon development is also fueling enormous investment in cleaner, more efficient homes, buildings, materials, and transportation. The U.S. is currently competitive in all of these areas. Yet by pulling out of the Paris Agreement, the United States is the only country (well, except for Nicaragua and Syria) saying “no” to the massive economic opportunities that accompany the transition to a clean energy future. And China is more than happy to step in to the breach.
The handful of Trump’s fossil fuel cronies who called for withdrawal from the Paris Agreement claims that it is necessary to protect American jobs and economic competitiveness, but nothing could be further than the truth. To the contrary, as China is already demonstrating, clean energy is a powerful engine for job growth, economic development, and affordable energy.
Jobs: In the United States, more people were employed in solar power last year than in generating electricity through coal, gas, and oil energy combined. The fastest-growing job in the United States is wind energy technician, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics projections. What Trump needs to do is connect the talent and skills of workers in transition to the opportunities created in the clean energy economy. Instead, by walking away from the Paris Agreement, Trump is betraying every American who believed he would create jobs.
China, the global leader in renewable energy investment, also leads the world in clean energy jobs, with 3.64 million jobs in 2016. China recently announced it would spend over $360 billion on clean energy in just the next three years, creating an additional 13 million jobs. China has also committed to spend at least $15 billion on worker retraining over the next two years.
CHART: Renewable Energy Employment in Selected Countries
(IRENA/Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2017)
Economic Competitiveness: China used to build two coal plants every week. Now, every hour, China erects another wind turbine and installs enough solar panels to cover a soccer field, according to Greenpeace estimates. The country now leads the world in wind and solar power capacity, and Trump has opened the door for China to capture an increasing share of this fast growing world market.
CHART: Wind Power Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2015
(REN21/Renewables 2016 Global Status Report)
Affordable Energy: Thanks in part to China’s manufacturing, the costs of wind and solar are dropping precipitously, making them increasingly competitive with coal, oil and gas. Solar and wind are now the same price or cheaper than new fossil fuel capacity over 30 countries. According to the World Economic Forum, two-thirds of all countries will reach grid parity within a few years. And some experts project that solar will drop to half the price of electricity from coal or natural gas within a decade or two. Why is Trump placing his bets on dirty fossil fuels that are on the way out, and leaving our children to pay the price?
China, along with dozens of other countries around the world, has reaffirmed its commitment to the Paris Agreement. According to a People’s Daily posting on Facebook yesterday:
Climate change is a worldwide challenge and no nation can stay away. China will fulfill the Paris Climate Accord, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying reassured the world, as the U.S. President Donald J. Trump announced on Thursday that the U.S. will start years-long process to withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement.
“No matter what changes may happen to other countries’ position on the Paris Climate Accord, China will continue to pursue the concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development, taking concrete measures and strengthening active steps domestically to counter climate change, and seriously fulfill the Paris Climate Accord,” Hua said.
The spokesperson noted the Paris agreement advocated the green, low-carbon, and sustainable development.
“China will continue to work with the EU to strengthen communication and cooperation on climate change, and push forward the multilateral governance process in this regard,” she added.
But Donald Trump has decided to turn his back on America’s future and the future of our planet.
Will China Take A Bigger Role As The U.S. Leaves The Climate Pact?
From an Interview of Alvin Lin (NRDC) on NPR, June 3, 2017
As the U.S. withdrawals from the climate deal, China is positioned to lead environmental efforts. NPR’s Scott Simon talks to Alvin Lin from the Natural Resources Defense Council’s China Program.
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Now that the Trump administration has announced it’s withdrawing the United States from the Paris climate accord, China’s environmental policies draw more interest. Alvin Lin is director of climate and energy policy for the Natural Resources Defense Council’s China program, and he joins us via Skype from Beijing. Mr. Lin, thanks so much for being with us.
ALVIN LIN: Thank you very much for having me.
SIMON: What do you hear from officials, and maybe non-officials, in Beijing following President Trump’s announcement?
LIN: Well, you know, of course, they’d been following this very closely. So I think they’ve been kind of prepared for it. And, you know, Friday, for example, the EU and China, they just concluded a bilateral, the leaders of their countries, in Brussels. And upon hearing the announcement from Mr. Trump, they actually came out and announced that they would be strengthening their commitment to fighting climate change together. So I don’t think this changes the Chinese position at all. And in fact, I think, you know, they’re just going to go and do what they were going to do in terms of transitioning to a clean energy future.
SIMON: Well, what – and what drives them? Is it the prospect of international leadership or an international market or, as I don’t have to tell you, the fact that many Chinese choke on the smog in their own cities?
LIN: Yeah. Well, there are definitely multiple factors. You know, about a decade ago, China passed their renewable energy law. They started to really grow wind and solar as the future strategic industries. And now they’re the largest in the world. They install by far the most wind turbines and solar panels in the world. So they really can see that this is a future growth area, that this is something that they can export to other countries. And it has all of these environmental benefits. So of course, to them, it just makes sense to do it.
SIMON: So they see jobs in green energy.
LIN: That’s right. You know, there’s 3 million renewable energy jobs in China. That’s the most in the world. Renewable energy jobs around the world, including in the U.S., are growing much faster than the overall job market. So there are definitely areas for growth.
SIMON: At the same time, China is the world’s largest coal user and producer, isn’t it?
LIN: That’s right. But it has actually peaked its coal consumption in 2013, and it’s been falling the last three years. I think even the leaders here see that coal doesn’t have a very bright future as an energy source and that you’ve got to develop these non-emitting, clean energy sources. So they have a mandatory target – are ready to continue to reduce their coal consumption and then to increase their non-emitting clean power renewables into the future. So these are mandatory targets. They’re setting in place the policies to reach them now.
SIMON: And China sees a role in world leadership on this issue?
LIN: Yeah. You know, I think Chinese leaders are not going to use that words to describe themselves. They’re sort of not ready to sort of take on that mantle, but they’re certainly very willing and excited to work with other regions, like the EU, like other developing countries. And I think they’re kind of the de facto leader on climate change now just because they’re implementing what they said they’re going to do in terms of wind and solar and energy efficiency.
SIMON: Alvin Lin – director of climate and energy policy for the NRDC’s China program. Thanks very much for being with us, Mr. Lin.
LIN: My pleasure.
Source: http://www.npr.org/2017/06/03/531347257/will-china-take-a-bigger-role-as-the-u-s-leaves-the-climate-pact